With a 23-17 win over the Baltimore Ravens on the road in their wild card game, the Los Angeles Chargers earned a ticket to face the New England Patriots in this AFC Divisional match. It’s two teams that have not seen a lot of each other in recent years, facing off only twice in the past five years. The Patriots won both games, most recently a 21-13 victory last season. In fact, New England has won the past four meetings dating back to 2010.
This will be their first playoff matchup since the Patriots beat them in consecutive seasons in 2006 & 2007. Picking up on the trend here? In 2006, the Patriots upset a 14-2 Chargers team favored to get to the Super Bowl in an absolute heart breaker. Leading 21-13 halfway through the fourth quarter, the Patriots did what the Patriots do, flipping the script in typical fashion winning 24-21.
New England Patriots
The Patriots look to defend their perfect 8-0 home record. However, this won’t be a walk in the park as the Chargers have held their own on the road with a stellar 8-1 record. The tale of the tape appears similar on both sides of the ball for both teams setting up a great matchup.
New England Patriots Home NFL Form
|30.12.2018||WIN||New England Patriots 38 – 3 Jets|
|23.12.2018||WIN||New England Patriots 24 – 12 Bills|
|02.12.2018||WIN||New England Patriots 24 – 10 Vikings|
|05.11.2018||WIN||New England Patriots 31 – 17 Packers|
|15.10.2018||WIN||New England Patriots 43 – 40 Chiefs|
Los Angeles Chargers
On the defensive side, the Chargers rank eight best allowing 20.6 points per game, the Patriots sixth at 20.3. It will be a challenge for both defenses considering their high-powered offenses. The Chargers are motoring to the tune of 372.6 yards per game on offense, the Patriots 393.4. Good for 11th and 5th best respectively. In passing yards per game, Chargers rank 10th at 255.6 yards per game, the Patriots 8th with 266.1. New England holds a slight edge in running the ball with 126.3 yards per game, the Chargers with 117.1.
Los Angeles Chargers Away NFL Form
|06.01.2019||WIN||Ravens 17 – 23 Los Angeles Chargers|
|30.12.2018||WIN||Broncos 9 – 23 Los Angeles Chargers|
|14.12.2018||WIN||Chiefs 28 – 29 Los Angeles Chargers|
|03.12.2018||WIN||Opponent 30 – 33 Los Angeles Chargers|
|11.11.2018||WIN||Raiders 6 – 20 Los Angeles Chargers|
The Money Line
Here are how the odds to win the match look from the bookies ahead of the game.
Odds taken at 13:30 GMT 10/01/2019
Our Verdict and Best Bets
Both teams are neck and neck in third down efficiency and points scored. Chargers convert 3rd downs at a 39.5 percentage rate, the Patriots at 40.8. And both teams put up points all year long with the Patriots ranking 4th best in league at 27.3 points per game, Chargers 6th at 26.8.
All time, Tom Brady is a perfect 7-0 in head-to-head meetings with Philip Rivers, including 2-0 in the playoffs. Rivers comes on the back of another great year, throwing for over 4000 yards for the sixth straight season and racking up 32 touchdowns.
The Patriots expect a big test from Chargers, but nevertheless, this will have similar results. Tom Brady and the Patriots are not ready to trip up. Another run at the Super Bowl is in the works.
Total Points Over 47 @ 1.80 (5/6) with Befair.
Half Time / Full Time, Patriots / Patriots @ 2.05 (21/20) with William Hill.